Analysis of crude oil price movement for August 2025, combined with insights into market drivers and a projection for September. All data is sourced for clarity and reference.
August 1–31, 2025: Crude Oil Price Trends
Observed Price Movement – WTI Crude (Cushing)
According to daily WTI closing prices from the Federal Reserve’s FRED dataset:
- August 19: ~$63.38
- August 20–22: Modest climb to ~64.19–64.56
- August 25: ~65.18
- August 29: Brief dip to ~64.01
- August 31: Ending around ~63.96
Key Contextual Highlights
- Early August Surge: Following production cut doubts and supply tightness, WTI rallied to ~$66–67 before the month began—an extension from July’s momentum
- OPEC+ Supply Increase Announcement: In early August, OPEC+ unveiled a 548,000 barrels/day production boost, tempering supply fears and contributing to downward price pressure
- Softening U.S. Demand & Rising Inventory Concerns: As summer demand waned, traders grew cautious, weighing this against impending autumn supply increases
- Moderate Market Stability: Despite geopolitical tensions cooling and markets remaining relatively calm (Brent hovering around $67–70), overall volatility slipped to near historic lows
August Summary: Crude Price Momentum
| Period | Price Trend | Market Sentiment & Drivers |
| Early August | Reached ~$66–67 | Supply concerns, OPEC+ cuts, tight output projecting higher |
| Mid-August | Stabilized ~63-65 | OPEC expansion, reduced demand, inventory builds |
| Late August | Slight decline (~64) | Weak demand signals and supply normalization |
September 2025 Projection
Based on current trends and analyst forecasts:
| Forecast | Brent | WTI |
| Expected Range | $60–64 | $58–62 |
Why This Projection Holds:
- Seasonal Demand Softening: With summer ended, lower driving and industrial activity typically cools demand
- Supply Ramp-up by OPEC+: Continuation of production boosts may create a mild surplus, exerting downward pressure
- Cautious Forecasts from Analysts: Institutions like Goldman Sachs peg Brent at ~$64 in Q4 with downside risks, and many expect continued market softness into 2026
- US Production Resilience: Despite low prices, shale growth could persist—limiting upward price swings
Rig2Pump Insights
- August 2025 saw crude prices driven by a mix of supply-tightness fears, strategic OPEC+ outputs, and cooling demand trends—resulting in a mild decline from early highs (~$66) to ~$64 WTI.
- Looking ahead to September, prices are likely to remain moderate to slightly lower, influenced by OPEC+ actions, seasonal demand shifts, and sustained shale supply.
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